China could soon be called out as a currency manipulator. Here's why

  • A semi-annual Treasury report, due out in October, could be another flashpoint.
  • The last release in April refrained from naming China as currency manipulators but did criticize the country for the "non-market direction" of its economy.
  • The U.S. dollar has appreciated 5 percent this year versus the yuan, with those gains occurring mainly in the last month or two.
China's President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a state dinner at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017.
Thomas Peter | Reuters
China's President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a state dinner at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017.

The next logical step in the U.S.' escalating trade war with China could be President Donald Trump's administration ramping up the rhetoric on the falling yuan currency.

The U.S. dollar has appreciated 5 percent this year versus the yuan, with those gains occurring mainly in the last month or two. Accusations from Trump of currency manipulation were sizeable on his campaign trail, but have been more muted during his presidency.

That might be about to change.

"It could happen... This could be one more tool that the U.S. could bring to the table," Thanos Vamvakidis, the head of G-10 foreign exchange strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" last week.

Michala Marcussen, the global head of economics at Societe Generale, added that a falling yuan is likely to give Trump that little bit more ammunition when criticizing China and implementing his recent policies of trade tariffs. The bottom line being that the global economic picture is likely to deteriorate further.

The current war on trade continues to rage. On Wednesday, Beijing announced it would counter the most recent round of U.S. tariffs with its own, slapping a 25 percent charge on $16 billion worth of U.S. goods. This followed a U.S. announcement that it would begin gathering levies on Chinese goods from later this month.

A semi-annual Treasury report, due out in October, could be another flashpoint. The last release in April refrained from naming China as currency manipulators but did criticize the country for the "non-market direction" of its economy.

But would the Trump administration be justified in its attacks on the currency? Probably not. Many currency experts agree that a weak yuan would actually be bad for China as so much of its supply chain is based around the wider Asian region. Thus meaning higher prices to produce Chinese goods with imported parts.

There's also Chinese debt denominated in the dollar, which would rise with any yuan weakening. Analysts also state that the yuan is not undervalued in this global environment and it's simply weakened alongside softening economic data from the world's second-largest economy.

"I don't think a strategy of aggressively pursuing currency depreciation would be a good thing for China," SocGen's Marcussen told CNBC last week. She concluded that any "significant" weakening from here would become a potential headwind.